" Can a liner just catastrophically fail somehow?"
It sure can! I had my new pool filled 10 days when on Mother's Day, 2003, I woke to the sound of a "waterfall". The brandy-new liner had split on a factory seam and was seriously washing away my sand base. Luckily, I have engineered drainage under the pool so the water didn't flood my basement. It was replaced under warranty and it's lasted 11 seasons so far.
But this "Nor'easter" has made ANY pool repairs or even assessment virtually impossible. We have 6 or 7" and we hit -3 deg last night, so I'm in the same weather system as you.
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