Hi, Jan. Happy 2012!

I'd say the bearings are indeed bad. If they are, I can't give you a time-frame on total seizure but it should still start as long as you can manually get the shaft to spin.

Do you have a small electric motor repair place nearby that will give you a 60+ day warranty on repacking the bearings? If not, I fear you are looking at a new motor for the new year.

Please keep us informed as to what's going on and we'll advise/ help, as best we can.