A better way to size a pool heater is by pool volume. Surface area is a good indicator for heat loss but volume is much better for heat gain. 1 BTU will raise the temp of 1 lbs of water 1 degree F.
A 125KBTU heater should raise the temp of 125,000 lbs of water one degree in one hour. This is about 15,000 gallons. However, as you pointed out, you do have to take heat loss into account and when the air temp is much less then water temp, you will lose quite a bit of heat per hour. Just curious, what is the volume of your pool?
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