Obvious problems:
1) You're not just heating the water, you're heating the walls and the earth around the walls. I don't know how far the heat will penetrate, but 6" to a foot is reasonable. So how many cubic feet of dirt and fiberglass do you have to heat?
2) The BTU content of propane is based on a 100% conversion efficiency. Never gonna get that. I don't know what the maximum efficiency is, but it will be lower. You'll use a lot more propane than you figure.
3) Even if insulated, 50' from the heater to the pool will lose a fair number of BTUS. Gotta figure that, too.
4) Since 3000 gallons is about 15% of 20,000 gallons, your ESTIMATED 16 degrees for the 3000 gallons comes down to about a 2.5 degree rise/hour for the entire 20,000 gallons--my guess.
I don't guarantee my numbers by any means, but.....they are worth thinking about.
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