The only thing that really matters is the panel temperature and it needs to be above the pool temp to add heat. There is a correlation between panel temp and air temp but it also depends on air speed, humidity and other factors. I have seen panel temps lower than the air temperature (cloudy days) and up to 20 degrees hotter than the air temp so it is difficult to say exactly what you should expect. The best thing to do is put a thermometer on the panels to see what the temp is.

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